JOB prospects will take a sharp dive in the next three months, going by a survey which shows that more employers plan to reduce their 'headcount'.
Almost half of more than 600 bosses polled recently intend to do so in the first three months of next year - up from the 10 per cent who said they would reduce staff between October and December this year.
They will cut jobs by not replacing staff who leave, by freezing hiring plans and via retrenchments.
This grim picture, the result of a beleaguered job market following the financial crisis, emerged in an employment outlook survey by global human resource consultancy Manpower Inc.
It polled 629 employers here, asking them if they planned to add or shed staff between January and March next year.
Only 8per cent said they intended to recruit, while 46per cent expected to cut jobs. The rest had no plans to hire or fire, or had not made up their minds.
This means the net employment outlook - the percentage of employers looking to hire, minus those expecting a decrease in employment - is -38per cent for January to March next year.
It is a sharp 54 percentage point fall from the October to December quarter, and indicates a severe lack of vacancies.
This is the bleakest showing since Manpower Inc started this survey in Singapore in the third quarter of 2004.
In fact, Singapore's net employment outlook is the most pessimistic among 33 countries. Some 71,000 employers were polled for its quarterly global survey.
Others with the weakest employment outlooks are Ireland (-14per cent), Spain (-13per cent) and Italy (-11per cent).
Among the eight Asia-Pacific countries, only two others had negative employment outlooks: Taiwan (-6per cent) and Japan (-3per cent).
The dismal job market is due to Singapore's open economy, which is more affected by the global financial crisis, said Manpower's country manager Philippe Capsie. 'As realisation of the credit crisis begins to hit companies, employers' hiring confidence is likewise affected.'
The hiring slowdown comes after Singapore slipped into a technical recession in the third quarter this year, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
As profit margins fell, local employers such as DBS and Neptune Orient Lines responded by retrenching workers.
To stem the surge in layoffs and keep workers employable, the Government re-issued guidelines urging employers to lay off workers as a last resort. It also launched a $600million training scheme that gives employers more funds to retrain, rather than retrench, workers.
Mr Capsie believes mass retrenchments will not be a long-term trend here.
'We expect more companies to slow down their hiring, freeze their headcounts or eventually adopt wage cuts until the economy stabilises,' he said.
Its survey of bosses across seven sectors found that those in finance, insurance and real estate were the least bullish about hiring. They had a net employment outlook of -46per cent. This was followed by services (-45per cent), and the wholesale and retail trade (-43per cent).
Commenting on the findings, Mr Koh Juan Kiat, executive director of the Singapore National Employers Federation (SNEF), said it presented a realistic picture of the gloomy job market.
'Employers are more cautious when it comes to hiring now. Some are not renewing employment contracts, are not replacing workers who leave and are redistributing work to existing staff.'
The SNEF's survey of 91 companies last month showed that 44per cent plan to freeze hiring, up from 37.2per cent in October. Those intending to reduce headcount also went up, from 5.9per cent to 9.9per cent.
It could get worse in the coming months, with more opting to freeze hiring due to uncertain business prospects, said Mr Koh.
But the SNEF survey offered some hope to job seekers as 46.2per cent of employers still plan to hire workers - although this is a dip from 56.9per cent in October.
- The Straits Times
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