FOR the first time since early 2007, hiring expectations are up - and nowhere is this turnaround more telling than in the banking and finance sector, which was seeing a slew of layoffs just nine months ago or less.
Of all the sectors covered in recruitment firm Hudson's May survey, it reported the biggest leap in hiring expectations: 32 per cent of respondents expect to bump up Q3 recruitment, from Q2's 19 per cent. The proportion planning to cut headcount more than halved.
With the financial sector a major growth engine for Singapore, is this a sign of better times ahead not just for sector professionals - but the economy as well?
In its report card on the financial sector, Hudson noted: "Hiring plans that were delayed from Q4 2008 onwards are now being implemented as the volume of deals appears to be sustainable.
"This indicates a much more positive outlook both for the financial sector and the economy as a whole."
But though 26 per cent of respondents overall forecast higher recruitment, and 48 per cent expect recovery this year or the first half of next year, analysts caution against expecting a hiring spree.
Putting the tentative signs of optimism down more to companies' belief that the worst is over, Forecast Singapore economist Vishnu Varathan said: "The banking industry was not so much affected by how much they were losing, but rather the huge uncertainty over how much the losses were going to be.
"Now that there is less uncertainty, commodity prices, mergers and acquisition have picked up, we're seeing activity returning to the market and targetted hires."
The key word is targeted. Financial services headhunter David Powe, of Strategic Search Partners, told Today: "Few firms are hiring, and if they are, it's not across the board."
The opportunities that banks want to exploit currently are in distressed assets and Asian products, he said: "Clients are after candidates who are 100 per cent close to the fit and it's usually someone with five years of experience."
Nearly half the employers in the banking and financial services industry felt able to negotiate lower starting salaries - the most of all the sectors.
Hudson surveyed 700 executives across key industries. The manufacturing sector, responsible for the majority of jobs shed in the last few quarters, expressed a surprisingly optimistic hiring outlook.
CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said the companies' forecast was consistent with the sector's seasonal patterns.
"Production and business pads up in the second half of the year to meet more orders for Christmas. You'll find this increase in demand whether it is a recession or not," he said.
On the same note, Mr Varathan said we shouldn't necessarily take the forecast at face value. "It's not clear from the data presented whether they are actually expanding operations," he said.
Manufacturing companies were most conservative about prospects for an economic recovery, with 25 per cent unsure when it will happen. Just 11 per cent think it will be this year, compared to 15 per cent of respondents from consumer, media and advertising.
Meanwhile, 42 per cent of respondents in the IT and technology sector anticipate recovery in the first half of next year, more than in any sector; while 77 per cent of healthcare and life sciences sector think the upturn will come sometime during next year.
Mr Varathan puts these varying forecasts down to each sector using different yardsticks.
"Manufacturing would want to see something more convincing like an upward trend in global demand before they stick their neck out," he said.
- TODAY newspaper
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