Layoffs likely to be below past peaks and jobless rate is also under control

LABOUR chief Lim Swee Say was unusually upbeat on Thursday, saying the number of people laid off and out of work in Singapore this year will be below the peaks of past downturns.

'After eight months, we are on track to reach the target,' he said on Thursday at Murata Electronics company's National Day observance ceremony.

His new confidence is a departure from his past warnings of more layoffs, although he cautioned again that it was still too early to pop the champagne. He believes there is a good chance that layoffs can be kept below the 30,000 peak Singapore suffered in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

His cautious optimism is based on the lower-than-expected layoffs in the first half of this year, at 15,700. The jobless rate too is unlikely to match the peak of 4.3 per cent in 2003 during the Sars crisis, he said, pointing to the latest figures.

It has remained steady at 3.3 per cent in June, despite the economy contracting 6.5 per cent in the first half of this year.

These numbers led Mr Lim, secretary-general of the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC), to declare: 'We have done unusually well in these unusual times.' It can be credited to several factors, he said.

Foremost among them are the government subsidy schemes to minimise layoffs such as Jobs Credit and the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (Spur). Also, several countries - including Singapore - have pulled out of the economic rut in the past month, owing to better-than-expected growth results.

However, there is a fly in the ointment: Employment figures beyond September are uncertain as companies have yet to see a rush of Christmas orders.

However, workers and unionists are 'very encouraged' by the assurance from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in his National Day Rally speech on Sunday, that the worst is over for the Singapore economy, he said.

Mr Lim said: 'They went through a very challenging first half of the year, and now they feel the situation has improved.' But the road to recovery is long, dark and slippery. 'We will fall again and again,' he warned.

- The Straits Times